Takeaways - NFL Week 1 (2016)

• This is the 1st time in NFL history that 3 games in Week 1 were decided by exactly 1 point via (Elias)
• 9 4th-quarter comeback wins in Week 1. That's the most 4th-quarter comeback wins in team's season openers in NFL history (Elias)
• 2 games left in Week 1, there's only 1 player who reached 100 rush yds: Lamar Miller with 106

• Jameis Winston joined Steve DeBerg in 1987 as the only Buccaneer with 4 Pass TD in a season opener
• On 24 attempts in 2nd & 3rd qtrs, Jameis Winston averaged 10.9 yards per att, had 4 pass TD and 1 off-target throw
• Jameis Winston Buccaneers 1st quarter- 3-7, 15 yards, INT
• Rest of game: 20-26, 266 yards, 4 TD
• Julio Jones: 35th career receiving TD, tying Tony Gonzalez and Alge Crumpler for 5th on Falcons' all-time list

• The Raiders are 1st team to score a go-ahead 2-pt conversion in final minute of 4th quater since Broncos in Week 2 of 2008
• Drew Brees is 7th player to pass for 400 yards and 4 TD in a season opener during the Super Bowl era

• Most 300-Yard Passing Games - NFL History

Drew Brees 97

Peyton Manning 93

Tom Brady 71

• Packers 27, Jaguars 23 Aaron Rodgers: 11th game w/ 2+ Pass TD and a Rush TD, only Cam Newton has more since 2008
• Aaron Rodgers has completed 70% of his passes to Jordy Nelson in his career, including 45 touchdowns, his most to any Packers receiver.

• The Dolphins' 4-man pass rush recorded 8 pressures and 3 sacks on Russell Wilson
• Russell Wilson: 26 pass attempts in 1st half, most pass attempts in any half of his career
• Russell Wilson: career-high 43 pass att; was 0-2 previously when throwing 40+ passes in gm

• The Vikings have lost 33 straight road games in which they trailed by 10+ points at halftime. Last such win: 1998 at Bears

• The Chiefs win was largest comeback win in Week 1 since Texans came back from down 21 …in 2013, also vs Chargers.
• Melvin Gordon's 219 touches before his 1st career TD are 4th-most by any player in last 25 seasons (Elias)

• Larry Fitzgerald is the 10th player in NFL history with 100 career Rec TD.
• New England is currently a 9.5-point underdog. Last time New England was that big of an underdog? 2001 championship vs St. Louis
• Patriots: 12-1 in last 13 season openers
• The Patriots scored their 1st offensive TD w/out Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski on the field since Week 6 in 2009, a streak of 343 TD

• Adam Rank - NFL Network - Here's what A.J. Green did against him.

10 Targets
10 Receptions
152 Yards 1 TD

• A.J. Green's 180 rec yds were 3rd-most by WR in gm vs Darrelle Revis' team (Moss, 183 in 2007 & Welker, 192 in 2009)

The Misleading Falcons Roster Age

Some of us joke that age is just a number.  This tends to be the reasoning that we use as we age out of certain activities or wish we were old enough to take part in others.  In the NFL, age is often closely tied to production.  Age becomes a rather important determining factor in whether or not a player receives another contract or if his forecasted production can not be depended on.

With that in mind, Philly Voice (http://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2016-edition/) each year does a breakdown of the 53 man rosters in the NFL in terms of average age.  The idea is to create a quantifiable difference in the age of NFL rosters from one to 32.  For 2016, the LA Rams have the youngest roster in the league with an average age of 25.  In contrast, your Atlanta Falcons have the oldest roster in the NFL with an averaged of 27.08.

While that average age is true, there are players on this Falcons roster that are playing perhaps their final year in the league.  Kicker Matt Bryant (41 years old) and defensive end Dwight Freeney (36 years old) skew the numbers considerably on this roster. 

With this in mind, I decided I needed a better measure of the true age of this team.  Having a 40 year old starting quarterback would affect the team wildly more than having a 40 year old backup quarterback.  But you can’t differentiate them with the Philly Voice’s method of age ranking.

I decided to take two different measures.  The first is to take the top five paid players on a team’s roster by cap dollars allocated.  Most NFL team’s can only afford to pay a core of 5-6 players.  Teams that properly management their cap will typically have quality veterans making up this measure.

Falcons Top 5 in pay: (Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Tyson Jackson, Andy Levitre & Jake Matthews) 28.4 years old.

My second measurement was to take the five “core players” that are on the Falcons roster.  Here is where the value of what Desmond Trufant means to the team vs Tyson Jackson comes into play.  While Jackson is paid as a top 5 player, Trufant would clearly be considered a top 5 core player on this roster.

Falcons core 5:  (Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Jake Matthews, Devonta Freeman, Desmond Trufant)   26.2 years old. 

The Falcons roster age changes dramatically when you consider the ages of their top 5 players.  Suddenly the Falcons are a team with a 26 year old core of players surrounded by older veterans.  This is much more representative of how the team is currently constructed.

Other NFC Teams:

Seahawks Top 5 in pay age: 27.6

Seahawks Core 5 age: 27.2

Carolina Top 5 in pay age: 29

Carolina Core 5 age: 28.6

Arizona Top 5 in pay age: 30.2

Arizona Core 5 age: 29.8

Green Bay Top 5 in pay age: 30.4

Green Bay Core 5 age: 29.4

Dallas Top 5 in pay age: 29.6

Dallas Core 5 age: 27.6

The Unpredictability of the NFL Turnover

There is a statistical anomaly that is a problem, or major help for NFL teams entering 2016.  Despite our beliefs that certain aspects of an NFL team can carry over from one year to the next, that simply does not apply to a team's ability to create turnovers.  Even for teams who were successful at it in recent years, maintaining the ability to turnover your opponent well above league averages is not a team ability that you can regularly bank on.

Take the Carolina Panthers as your newest example.The Panthers may be as good or better in 2016, but it won’t be because of what made them great in 2015.  The ability to turnover their opponents was statistically ridiculous.

• A fumble is a 50-50 ball.  Teams that recover significantly more than 50-55% of them are lucky from year to year.

• The Panthers forced 26 turnovers in 2014 (11th), in 2015 they forced 39 (1st).  That’s a 50% increase.  That doesn’t replicate from year to year.

• Consider that in 2014, Carolina forced 24 fumbles and recovered 12.

• In 2015, Carolina forced 21 fumbles at recovered 15 (71%).

Let's take this a step further to illustrate how difficult it is to continue takeaway success in the league.  Here are the leaders in takeaways in 2015:

Carolina

Arizona

NY Jets

Pittsburgh

Kansas City

 

In 2014 they were:

Houston

Dallas

Buffalo

San Francisco

Philadelphia

The New York Jets are in a very similar situation.  And it’s the amount of regression that fans should be concerned about.

• In 2015 the Jets defense were 3rd in the league in turning over opponents with 30. 

• The rise of the Jets offense was a big deal in that a defense playing with a lead is that much more aggressive and opportunitistic.  The Jets offense ranked 10th in the NFL, after previously ranking 22nd and 25th in the previous two years.

• Similarly, the Jets forced just 13 and 15 turnovers in those two seasons when their offense lacked the ability to create leads regularly.

• So what is coming this year?  30 turnovers forced is 150% increase from 2014, so you’d expect the team to fall back to a more normal number.  But how much will depend on how good the offense can be for a second consecutive year.

 

But there is good news for teams like Baltimore and Dallas, because it’s nearly impossible to match their regression on takeaways from 2014 to 2015.

Dallas can talk about their improvement based on having their quarterback back as well as their top receiver in Dez Bryant.  And those are absolutely huge factors because they have provided opportunities for their defense by letting them defend with the advantage of having a lead. 

• Dallas ranked 19th in the league in total defense in 2014, they ranked 17th last year.  But they allowed 23 points per game vs 22 in 2014.  The biggest difference came in their turnovers forced.

• Dallas moved from 31 to 11 turnovers forced in 2015.

• Dallas will continue to be a leader in time of possession because of their offensive style.  But their D should give them considerably more turnovers simply by returning to league average.

Baltimore is in a very similar situation as Dallas because of their injuries at quarterback.  and receiver.  Their defense should benefit from 23 to 14.

Teams that have basically posted the same sort of seasons from their defense from 2014 to 2015 in terms of taking the ball away.  All have posted consistent numbers without major changes.

• Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Broncos

• Giants, Eagles, & Rams.