There is a statistical anomaly that is a problem, or major help for NFL teams entering 2016. Despite our beliefs that certain aspects of an NFL team can carry over from one year to the next, that simply does not apply to a team's ability to create turnovers. Even for teams who were successful at it in recent years, maintaining the ability to turnover your opponent well above league averages is not a team ability that you can regularly bank on.
Take the Carolina Panthers as your newest example.The Panthers may be as good or better in 2016, but it won’t be because of what made them great in 2015. The ability to turnover their opponents was statistically ridiculous.
A fumble is a 50-50 ball. Teams that recover significantly more than 50-55% of them are lucky from year to year.
The Panthers forced 26 turnovers in 2014 (11th), in 2015 they forced 39 (1st). That’s a 50% increase. That doesn’t replicate from year to year.
Consider that in 2014, Carolina forced 24 fumbles and recovered 12.
In 2015, Carolina forced 21 fumbles at recovered 15 (71%).
Let's take this a step further to illustrate how difficult it is to continue takeaway success in the league. Here are the leaders in takeaways in 2015:
Carolina
Arizona
NY Jets
Pittsburgh
Kansas City
In 2014 they were:
Houston
Dallas
Buffalo
San Francisco
Philadelphia
The New York Jets are in a very similar situation. And it’s the amount of regression that fans should be concerned about.
In 2015 the Jets defense were 3rd in the league in turning over opponents with 30.
The rise of the Jets offense was a big deal in that a defense playing with a lead is that much more aggressive and opportunitistic. The Jets offense ranked 10th in the NFL, after previously ranking 22nd and 25th in the previous two years.
Similarly, the Jets forced just 13 and 15 turnovers in those two seasons when their offense lacked the ability to create leads regularly.
So what is coming this year? 30 turnovers forced is 150% increase from 2014, so you’d expect the team to fall back to a more normal number. But how much will depend on how good the offense can be for a second consecutive year.
But there is good news for teams like Baltimore and Dallas, because it’s nearly impossible to match their regression on takeaways from 2014 to 2015.
Dallas can talk about their improvement based on having their quarterback back as well as their top receiver in Dez Bryant. And those are absolutely huge factors because they have provided opportunities for their defense by letting them defend with the advantage of having a lead.
Dallas ranked 19th in the league in total defense in 2014, they ranked 17th last year. But they allowed 23 points per game vs 22 in 2014. The biggest difference came in their turnovers forced.
Dallas moved from 31 to 11 turnovers forced in 2015.
Dallas will continue to be a leader in time of possession because of their offensive style. But their D should give them considerably more turnovers simply by returning to league average.
Baltimore is in a very similar situation as Dallas because of their injuries at quarterback. and receiver. Their defense should benefit from 23 to 14.
Teams that have basically posted the same sort of seasons from their defense from 2014 to 2015 in terms of taking the ball away. All have posted consistent numbers without major changes.
