Welcome to Falcons Preseason Action! (I'm late)

Welcome to the Falcons preseason!  Wait, I know exactly what you’re thinking...I am a week late and should have posted this before the Falcons took on the Redskins in the Georgia Dome last week.  This criticism is 100% true.  But I had a family trip to the beach to end my summer so that took precedent over FrontOfficeFootball.  While the most recent evaluation of this site estimated the value at $20 million, the opportunity to spend time with the family caused me to ignore my normal obligations.  As I’ve stated before, I am the most complicated multi-multi-multi millionaire in all of Atlanta.

(everything italicized is a wild exaggeration)

I feel that I am always of two minds when it comes to the Falcons.  There is the optimist in me who takes a rose-colored glasses view of the team and their moves heading into the season.  But I’ve also been burned in ways that can only be described as tortuous.  You see, it’s one thing to watch 4-12 or 6-10 seasons and then move on with your Sunday despite feeling disappointed or angry.  For me, I have to do a 2-3 hour post game show after these abominations.  And it’s pretty much like getting kicked in the bean bag over and over again. (Unless that’s your thing.  Everybody has a thing.) So I feel I’ve more than earned the right to be ultra-critical and skeptical. 

As I am always of two minds on these Falcons, I will illustrate this with pictures and words.   

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Falcons Optimism –

• Say what you want to about the quarterbacks the Falcons defense faced in 2015, (which is completely legitimate given that group of stiffs) but the defense was statistically improved from the loaded diaper that was 2014.  Yes, this team does not sack quarterbacks.  Yes, this team gives up entirely too many easy completions to backs and tight ends.  But I am of the belief that with Dan Quinn’s additions at safety and linebacker this defense will continue to improve.  At the very least this defense should be faster on the second level.  A defense ranked in the teens this season would give the offense a chance to win the game most weeks.

• Matt Ryan can’t play worse than he did in 2015.  Interceptions are going to happen to every quarterback in the NFL.  That’s just part of the business.  What boggles the mind were the head-scratching interceptions that immediately ended the Falcons chances for victory.  16 interceptions in 2015 for Matt Ryan along with 5 lost fumbles accounted for his 21 turnover total.  That just can’t happen in 2016.  There’s no way it will happen in 2016.  It can’t possibly happen.  Ryan is just too good to be the reason the team loses games.

• 2015 Two words: Leonard Hankerson.  2015 Two more words: The Answer.  2016 Five words: Leonard Hankerson street free agent. I consider this to be significant improvement.  Even if the Falcons wildly overpaid for Mohammed Sanu.

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Falcons Negativity –

• Keanu Neal has already missed a game, albeit a preseason game, due to injury.  One of the legit criticisms during the draft process of Neal was that his style of play would lend itself to injury given his size.  In a league where safeties are valued by their ability to cover and make plays in space, Neal is a hitter.  The hope is that he can display coverage ability… but the Falcons basically drafted a hard-hitting safety in a league that doesn’t want hard hitting in the game anymore.  It’s like investing in HD-DVDs.  Didn’t we already have this with William Moore?  Neal missed 15 tackles last season with his all-or-nothing approach.  He also defended just 9 passes during his three years at Florida.  So it’s not like I’m ignoring college production by indulging in Neal negativity.

• Say whatever you wish about Pro Football Focus, (and mostly the criticism comes from ex-athletes who can’t spell math) but there is some value to their system of tracking and grading players.  They’re simply now part of in-depth coverage of the NFL.  With that written, know that PFF had the Falcons draft as the worst in the NFL in terms of college players grades vs. where they were drafted.  Which leads me to this…

• I can’t stand, “scheme specific” scouting.  It’s wildly short-sighted and serves the most desperate man in the building.  When a GM is strong and his job is not at stake, the GM will draft according to his beliefs.  Think of it this way: a Steelers outside linebacker looks the same today as it did in 2006 and 1996.  They draft talent that fits their organizational beliefs and how they play defense.  Here in Atlanta, the scheme changes over the past several seasons have forced the Falcons to draft for specific teams instead of taking the best talent.  This team needed a Kam Chancellor type defender, so Keanu Neal was taken in the first round.  This team needed a pass rusher, so it took a small pass rusher who can’t play on the line of scrimmage on every down in Vic Beasley.        

There you go...I'll watch with an open mind in 2016 just as I have done in previous seasons.  But once I've seen which way the wind is blowing, either the optimist or pessimist in me will make his final decisions on what exactly the 2016 Falcons are.

Falcons Projections for Balance in 2016

If the Falcons are to have a successful 2016 campaign, the offensive balance of season's past needs to return. From 2010 to 2012, the Falcons offense featured a balanced attack that allowed Matt Ryan to throw the football while also gaining significant yards on the ground.  The result were not just points, but an ability to keep an average defense that did not pressure quarterbacks to play less plays.

Considering the quarterbacks that the Falcons will face in 2016, holding possession and protecting the defense is a smart recipe.

The Falcons teams of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured top 10 offenses and scored atleast 400 points.  Last years 339 points were the fewest for a Falcons team since 2007.  Think of all of the fun of the Bobby Petrino era.

As Matt Ryan has gotten better and better, there has been a temptation to let him throw the football more and more.  This is not a good idea.  Actually it's a terrible idea.  Quarterbacks who have to throw the football many more than 30 passes per game experience more mistakes.

In Matt Ryan's playoff seasons from 2010-2012, here were Ryan's attempts:

2010 – 571 attempts. 2011 - 566 attempts. 2012 - 615 attempts.

In the previous three non-playoff seasons, Ryan has attempted:

651 – 628 - 614.
 

Matt Ryan ideal numbers
560 attempts (35 per game)
29 TDs / 10 ints - 4,310 yards (92 QB rating)
 

Receving:
Julio Jones:
110 receptions – 1,650 yards – 10 TDs

Mohammed Sanu:
55 receptions – 660 yards – 5 TDs

Jacob Tamme:
50 receptions – 550 yards – 3 TDs

Justin Hardy:
35 receptions – 315 yards – 2 TDs
 

Rushing:
Devonte Freeman:
78 receptions – 617 yards – 5 TDs
310 attempts – 1,280 yards (4.0 avg) – 10 TDs

Tevin Coleman:
15 receptions – 105 yards – 1 TD
115 attempts – 483 yards – 3 TDs

Rushing Yardage Goal: 1,800 yards.

The Good News for The Falcons 2016 Defense

This is not good.  But there is good news.

I’ve spent my free time this week doing what I believe we can all relate to: watching 2015 Falcons film and learning just how the 2016 draft picks will be deployed for the upcoming season.  Yes, I realize this is a massively popular past time for all of us.

I have good news…and sort of good news.  The sort of good news is that the Falcons have added some versatile pieces this off season that should help them in reaching the 30 sack mark.  Let’s face it, 40 is the mark every team should shoot for at a minimum.  But after just 19 sacks last season, we should all just take what improvement we can get.

The legitimate good news is that the Falcons have added the sort of speed and versatility to their line backing core that should significantly improve the team’s zone coverages.  The Falcons were eaten alive last year by opposing running backs and tight ends in the passing game. 

Consider this for a moment: the Falcons gave up 119 receptions and four touchdowns to running backs and tight ends…over the first NINE games of the season.  That’s not taking into account one pass caught by a receiver over that time period.  As bad as the pass rush was in 2015, this coverage problem was another area in need of a major allocation of draft resources.

Let's start with the new look of the Falcons nickel defense.  Last year the team would use a variety of two linebacker combinations featuring MLB Paul Worrilow in the middle of their zones. In the situation below, WLB Justin Durant followed TE Ben Watson into the flat but was in charge of a shallow zone.  As you can tell, S Charles Godfrey walked down to add another shallow zone defender.

Falcons Nickel D vs Saints 11 personnel - 2nd & 8

The new-look Falcons nickel defense will be significantly different from the one above (which gave up a short pass to the running back that resulted in a first down on the play).  The additions of Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and De'Vondre Campbell give the Falcons a ton of more sub package options.  Take a look below.  Neal becomes the walk down safety which accentuates his best talents. Jones takes Worrilow off the field. The Falcons have talked about Jones as an MLB in this defense, and while debatable, he does fit that role in nickel.  Consider what the team is saying about their draft picks:

Dan Quinn on Keanu Neal - "We like the fact that he's all downs and we knew how to feature him covering tight ends. And we do play zone, which we play a lot on third down as well, he is a factor."

 

Dan Quinn on Deion Jones - "Has length to defend and cover. So those two parts of it, that's what we were looking for, to be an all-down backer, speed, the close ability, the tackling in space."

 

Dan Quinn on De'Vondre Campbell - "It's the length, it's the speed and that part of it we certainly saw the match ups, playing on tight ends and running backs to cover.  Important guy to add to the D.  He can certainly fill a number of roles in terms of coverage."

2016 Falcons nickel D

The Falcons will also have a new variety of options in their base 4-3 packages as well. These new options should allow them to be faster and more athletic around the line of scrimmage.  Below, Keanu Neal would assume the safety role currently filled by Kemal Ishmael.  The appeal of using a first round pick for this role is that the Falcons should improve the quality of their pass coverage. In this package, Worrilow remains as the only second level defender who isn't expected to be a success in coverage.  That's an improvement over what was happening in 2015. 

Falcons projected base 4-3 defense 2016