NFL & CFB Notes 10/10 - 10/11

Northwestern at Michigan

Michigan is currently rebuilding their program under Jim Harbaugh.  They are currently 3rd in the Big 10 East division behind Ohio State and Michigan State.  This year they’re not going to win the Big 10, but they do get a chance to play spoiler over the next two weeks.  Michigan State is up in two weeks, but this weekend it’s Northwestern.

Northwestern opened up the season by making Stanford look like a bad football team.  If you haven’t noticed, Stanford now has the inside track to appear in the PAC 12 title game.  Northwestern currently leads the Big 10 West, and along with Iowa, are a contender for that division.

Everyone has their eye on Ohio State as the defending national champion.  But remember that the Buckeyes are currently 80th in strength of schedule and just 25th in the country in game control.  They’re simply not beating up on bad teams.  It’s time to look at some of the good teams in the Big 10 to see just who can possible upset Ohio State.  Northwestern could be one of them.

Cal at Utah

You did hear it here first, Utah is currently in contention to be a college football playoff team.  Last week I had LSU, Utah, Notre Dame, and Michigan State as my four playoff teams.  Utah remains solidly in my current group of LSU, Clemson, and Texas A&M.

Utah already has wins over Michigan at home and a demolishing of Oregon on the road.  They are one of only two PAC 12 teams who are currently undefeated, the other being Cal.  This is not an elimination game, but similar to last week’s Clemson vs Notre Dame game, this game is important for the conference to hold onto a potential bid for the playoffs.

Utah’s strength of schedule is 25th in the country, which is significantly better than Ohio State (80), TCU (78), Baylor (113) and Michigan State’s (88).  Utah is also 6th in the country in strength of record and game control.

The first rankings are due out November 3rd.  If Utah can continue to win they will be part of the playoff four.

 

Seahawks at Bengals

Who are the highest rated quarterbacks right now in the NFL?  Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is in his customary spot at #1 in the league.  The real surprise here is Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, who is currently the 2nd highest rated passer in the NFL.

After re-working his mechanics this offseason, Dalton is enjoying the best season of his career.  Dalton has thrown just one interception for his nine touchdown passes.  His QB rating is 40 points higher than it was last season. 

One of the biggest changes is that Dalton has gone from a dink-and-dunk passer to enhancing his accuracy down the field.  After being a seven yards per completion thrower, Dalton’s average yards per completion is now over 10 yards.  He’s second in the league to Ben Roethlisberger in getting the ball down the field.  This is not your normal Andy Dalton.

The Seahawks head to Cincinnatti as the NFL’s #2 defense, and are 5th in the league in pass defense.  This will be the game to see if Dalton really has taken the next step to getting the Bengals deeper in the AFC playoffs.

Rams at Packers

The Rams are two completely different teams.  One team is the one that plays against NFC West teams and is capable of beating anyone.  The other team is the one that plays every other team in the NFL and looks completely different.

The Rams are 2-0 vs the NFC West, putting 34 points on Seattle and beating Arizona on the road 24-22.  Verse the Steelers and Redskins, the team has combined to score 16 total points.  It doesn’t get any easier taking on the Green Bay Packers.

This year in Green Bay it’s just not about the greatness of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.  The Packers are currently 2nd in the NFL in quarterback sacks.  I’m big on two things, QB play and sacks on defense.  The last time the Packers were getting to the quarterback this well was during the 2010 season.

That Packers won the Super Bowl that year after finishing 2nd in the league in sacks.

49ers at Giants (SNF)

I’m not sure the 49ers will ever be a factor offensively this season, and perhaps not until they make a change at quarterback. 

The 49ers scored 20 points in their season opening win against the Vikings, since then, they’ve scored 28 points in their next three ball games.  It’s not just that 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick is the 33rd ranked passer in the NFL, he’s also one of the most incapable passers downfield.  His six yard average on completion also puts him at 33rd in the league. 

The 49ers simply cannot move the football when asked to make enough plays to get down the field in small chucks.

The Giants have their own set of problems, but receiver Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t one of them.  If there are only a few sure things in the NFL, Beckham is one of them each week.  His 1,612 yards to open up his career is the record for a receiver over his first 16 games.

Takeaways - NFL Week 4

Odell Beckham Jr.

Quite the start: Falcons running back Devonte Freeman has become the first player since the NFL-AFL merger to score three touchdowns in his first two starts.

The Miami Dolphins fired Coach Joe Philbin after their 1-3 start to the season.  The Dolphins had one coach, Don Shula, from 1970 to 1995.  Since 1996, the Dolphins have had eight head coaches.  The team has now fired three coaches during the season over this time: Philbin, Dave Wannstedt (1-8 in 204), and Tony Sparano (4-9 in 2011).

What never helps you as a coach:  The Miami Dolphins have been outscored in the first quarter this year by a score of 37-3.

(ESPN Stats and Info) The New Orleans Saints got their first win over the season last night against the visiting Dallas Cowboys in over time.  Saints running back CJ Spiller makes the game winning catch and run from 80 yards out.  Before that play, his previous longest reception was for 19 yards.

(ESPN Stats and Info) Peyton Manning is 4-0 for the 7th time in his career.  Manning now has the most amount of 4-0 starts for a quarterback in league history.

Philadelphia Eagles running back DeMarco Murray has told the media that he needs the ball more.  Murray signed a contract that pays him 8.5M per season with the Eagles after averaging 28 touches per game last season with the Dallas Cowboys.  Murray currently has 40 total touches in the three games he has played in.

New York Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr is part of the perfect storm.  OBJ plays on a team with a quarterback who is passing capable and the team has trailed in a lot of ball games over the last two seasons.  What has that meant for OBJ?  Beckham’s 1,612 receiving yards through 16 games is the most in NFL history for a receiver starting his career.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick is getting Jim Harbaugh paid.  The regression for Kaepernick continued on Sunday vs the Green Bay Packers.  Kap was 13-25 for 160 yards and one interception.  Of those 13 completions, only three went for five yards or more. (SB Nation)

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith threw for 386 yards on Sunday in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.  But one thing, he didn’t throw a touchdown pass.  That’s the 3rd highest amount of yards in NFL history without throwing a touchdown pass.  (SB Nation)

Weird leaders:  Quick, name the NFL quarterback who is also his team’s leading rusher…The Seattle Seahawks will look to even their record at 2-2 tonight against the Detroit Lions.  The Seahawks have been banged up at running back as Marshawn Lynch has had a hamstring, Fred Jackson has been limited, and Thomas Rawls is inexperienced.  The team’s leading rusher is currently quarterback Russell Wilson with 24 carries for 137 yards.

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is 2nd on his team with 195 rushing yards.  Jonathan Stewart leads the Panthers with 220 yards thus far.

NFL & CFB Notes 10/3 - 10/4

Georgia RB Sony Michel

#13 Alabama at #8 Georgia

This game has the most intriguing potential to it because of what it could mean to the SEC and perhaps all of college football.  Nick Saban’s agent, who spent last season flirting with Texas, has been willing to listen to other jobs.  The question is: what would a 2nd loss make life like for Saban in Tuscaloosa?

Understand that Saban and the Crimson Tide have lost two games in a season quite a few times before.  But that is often in big end of year bowl games, such as last year’s playoff vs Ohio State or against Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl.

If Georgia beats Alabama, who are an underdog for the first time in 73 games, Saban would have his 2nd loss faster than any season since his start in Tuscaloosa in 2007.  Since 2008, the earliest Saban has taken a 2nd loss in a season was November 26th of 2010 against Auburn.  Imagine life with that fan base if it happens in early October.

As for Georgia, their offense is one that looks to wear you down by the 4th quarter.  Last season, the Bulldogs were 3rd in the country in 4th quarter scoring.  They are 62nd currently, but that tends to be a reflection of calling off the dogs late in games thus far.

Pay attention to Georgia running back Sony Michel.  He is Georgia’s best player, as he has 223 yards rushing and a 7.0 average with 3 touchdowns.  But as a receiver, Michel is all over the field with another 8 catches for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Quite the versatility for a 215lb running back.

#6 Notre Dame at #12 Clemson

For this big matchup, take your preconceived notions for each team and throw them out the window.  This common view for who each of these teams have been over the years does not apply this year.

Typically, Clemson is the team known for trying to run as many plays as possible and thus, score as many points as possible.  With what the Tigers have lost in recent years defensively, it would be understandable if they were struggling defensively.  This year Clemson is 55th in the country in plays per game, when they are typically amongst the top 30 teams in the country. 

Surprisingly, Clemson has thus far given up just 12.3 points per game defensively. 

Notre Dame despite their injuries are still a really good football team.  They are 8th in the country in points per play; basically they can score and score quickly.  They are 5th in the country in yards per play so they have shown they can score from all over the field.  Their 41 points per game puts them among some of the best offensives in college football.

Notre Dame’s balance offensively and aggressive defense will be something that Clemson has not seen in victories over Wofford, App State and Louisville.  I believe Notre Dame shows the country that they are a playoff contender and adds a win over Clemson to a schedule that has had them already beat Texas, Virginia, and Georgia Tech.

Vikings at Broncos

If the Vikings are going to challenge the Denver Broncos defense, Minnesota has to find some balance.

The Vikings feature the NFL’s leading rusher in Adrian Peterson, who is leading the NFL in rushing and averaging 4.9 yards per carry.  The problem for the Vikings is despite this production, they are currently just 29th in total offense.  Granted, teams that throw the ball tend to be higher, but quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been just averaged so far this season.  Bridgewater has just an 80.1 QB rating, while tossing just one touchdown thus far.

We discussed the Broncos last week, and all the same compliments about their defense continue to hold true.  No team has a better playing cornerback tandem right now than Denver in Chris Harris Jr. and Aquib Talib.  The team backs that up with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware as edge rushers on third down.  Denver is #1 in total defense, #1 in passing yards per game, and #6 in rushing yards per game.  The Broncos are 3rd in the NFL in sacks. 

Basically, the Broncos have a championship level defense.  If they score in the 20’s on teams, they have a chance to win every game whether at home or on the road.

Cowboys at Saints

If your quarterback completes 22-26 passes for 232 yards and is intercepted once, is that enough to win in the NFL?  That was Brandon Weeden’s day against the Atlanta Falcons. 

The knock on Weeden for his performance last week, outside of the brain-dead interception, was that the game plan was very conservative.  Outside receivers were targeted just twice during the game, and only slot receiver Cole Beasley made a reception with four.

For the matchup Sunday night in the Super Dome, the Cowboys will have to be more aggressive with their passing game.  They are currently 12th in the NFL in average yards per carry, but need to create more space for that run game.  In Weeden’s two starts as a Cowboy, both the Cardinals in 2014 and the Falcons last week played 10 men within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage for a majority of the game.

The Saints have been a mess so far in their 0-3 start to the season.  For years one could depend on their offense to take care of any defensive issues.  This year the Saints are 13th in total offense, and just 19th in scoring offense.  The defense hasn’t improved significantly from last year in posting the 29th best defense in the league.  They were 31st last season.

This game comes down to whether or not the Saints can make the Cowboys as limited in their run game as the Falcons did.  After 131 rushing yards in the first half, the Cowboys were a minus 4 in rushing in the second half last week.