Takeaways - NFL Week 3

Falcons RB Devonte Freeman

• Falcons are 3-0 once again, the last two times they reached the NFC title game (2004 & 2012)

• (ELIAS) Falcons receiver Julio Jones’ 34 receptions are the most over the first three games of a season in NFL history.

• Falcons running back Devonte Freeman got 30 carries in the win over the Dallas Cowboys.  The last time a Falcons running back received 30 carries was September 26th of 2010, when Michael Turner got 30 carries and 114 yards against New Orleans in a 27-24 win.  The previous time was December 14th of 2008 when Michael Turner got 32 carries and 152 yards in a 13-10 win over Tampa.

• (ESPN Stats and Info) – How impressive have the Arizona Cardinals been thus far?  You probably haven’t noticed because they play west coast games and you have already written off Carson Palmer.  Through three games the teams who have scored the most points in NFL history:

• 1968 Cowboys – 132
• 2013 Broncos – 127 (set league record)
• 1966 Cowboys – 127
• 2015 Arizona Cardinals – 126

• By the way: Carson Palmer has now won his last 9 NFL starts.

• (ESPN Stats and Info) – San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick completed 9 of his first 10 passes yesterday, sort of.  Five were to his guys, four were to the Arizona Cardinals as they intercepted him.

• The Seattle Seahawks saved their season for the time being.  If there’s one thing everyone in the NFC doesn’t want to see is a Seahawks team with homefield advantage in the NFL playoffs.  Last year they secured it even though they started the season 3-3.  With yesterday’s win, Russell Wilson is now 27-2 at home.  (Losing only to Dallas last year and Arizona the year before)

• Baltimore Ravens are 0-3.  That’s the first time in the club history that they have ever gotten off to that type of start.  Technically the Ravens franchise started in 1996, so that’s 20 seasons.  The Ravens now have just one more Super Bowl victory than 0-3 starts.

• Bengals receiver AJ Green went for 227 yards on 10 catches yesterday in a win over those Baltimore Ravens.  That was the second time in his career that Green has gone over 200 yards in a game.  The last time was last December against the Steelers, catching 11 balls for 224 yards. Calvin Johnson has done it 5 times (329 yards is his high), BeBe Thomas has done it once (226 yards), Dez Bryant once (224 yards), and Julio Jones once (259 yards).

• League leaders:  lost in the numbers.  Julio Jones currently leads the NFL in receiving yards over Antonio Brown of the Steelers by four yards.  Viking running back Adrian Peterson currently leads the NFL in rushing by 15 yards over Matt Forte of the Bears.  But no one is out to destroy the league like Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.  Brady has already reached 1,100 yards in passing in just three games.  He currently leads second place Matt Ryan by 166 yards.

NFL & CFB Notes 9/26 - 9/27

TCU at Texas Tech

This game is intriguing because of the history, Vegas, and where TCU is as a potential playoff team.

Last year Texas Tech went to Fort Worth to take on the Horned Frogs.  That game had a final score of 82-27.  A winning margin of 55 points!  It would stand to reason that TCU would be heavily favored once again against a 3-0 Texas Tech team. 

But that’s just not the case.  Vegas has TCU as just a seven point favorite.  TCU, because of suspension, injuries, and graduation does not have the same kind of defense as they had last year.  In 2014, TCU was 28th in total defense, which was more than enough considering what they were doing offensively.  This year they are 76th in total defense. 

I’m not saying this will be an upset.  What I am saying is that there are a lot of conditions here that would concern me if I was on the TCU playoff bandwagon.

UCLA at Arizona

A battle for Pac 12 south supremacy gets underway Saturday night.  Arizona has scored the 2nd most amount of points those teams in the Power 5 conferences, but they haven’t played anyone as of yet.  UCLA has proven a bit more in defeating both Virginia and BYU thus far this season.

The UCLA defense has been impressive thus far.  The Bruins have given up just 42 points on the season, and are 28th in total defense.  But they haven’t had to deal with a player like Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon.

Solomon has already accounted for 11 touchdowns this season, that’s good enough for 6th in the country.  Solomon’s 10 touchdown passes have occurred without an interception.  He’s completing 68% of his passes.  But he hasn’t seen anything like the Bruins defense this season.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

The only matchup between 2-0 teams this NFL weekend features two teams who have beaten both the Giants and Eagles.  The Cowboys injuries have been the story all week, but what’s been overlooked is the subtle improvement of the Falcons defense.

Dan Quinn in his first year as the Falcons head coach hasn’t added a bunch of new top-end talent to the Falcons defense.  They are still ranked 27th in the NFL in total defense.  But where the Falcons are improved is on the critical down: 3rd down.  The Falcons were dead last in the NFL last season in opponents 3rd down conversions, giving up nearly a 50% rate of success.  Thus far in 2015, the Falcons have improved that rate to just under 45%, good enough for a 21st ranking in the league. 

The Cowboys’ offense has really morphed into something that resembles the Patriots and Colts teams when they attack teams with their two tight end sets.  The Cowboys have been playing tight end Gavin Escobar on about 40% of their snaps so far this season.  That has allowed Dallas to play two receivers, two tight ends, and get the ball to their running backs in the passing game.  Cowboy running backs so far have 18 catches for 211 yards. 

Look for Cowboy running back Lance Dunbar to create some issues as the Falcons have allowed more catches and yards to running backs than any other team in the league thus far.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets

The Philadelphia Eagles are playing for their season against the New York Jets.  Consider this: only three NFL teams since 1992 have made the playoffs after starting the season 0-3.  The last one was the 1998 Buffalo Bills, so it’s been awhile.

The Eagles running game has been dreadful so far this season.  For a team that has been one of the best in the league at rushing the football under head coach Chip Kelly, the Eagles are dead last in rushing yards per game in the NFL.  The Eagles are averaging 35 yards rushing per game.  I attribute this to a lack of speed on the offense and the poor play of quarterback Sam Bradford.  Bradford is currently the 31st ranked passer in the league.

As for the Jets, Todd Bowles has already placed his stamp on this football team.  Last year, Bowles’ Arizona Cardinals defense was amongst the league leaders in taking the football away from their opponents.  The Jets are currently #1 in the NFL in turnover margin, having already forced an amazing 10 turnovers in just two games.  This is not the right team for Eagles quarterbacks Sam Bradford to “get right” with.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (SNF)

The Detroit Lions have a recipe for getting Matthew Stafford hurt.

The Lions, despite their 0-2 record, actually held a sizeable lead in week 1 against San Diego.  That’s a perfect situation to run the football and finish off a team.  But running the football is something that the Lions are just not going.  They have run the ball a total of 32 times over two games, with one of the lower averages in the league.  Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has been physically beaten up thus far. 

Denver is the wrong team to figure out your offense against.  The Broncos are currently #1 in defense in the NFL, and are fourth in the league in sacks.  While Peyton Manning hasn’t looked like the Peyton Manning of even early last season, the Broncos have a defense that’s going to keep them in games.  Also, don’t overlook the fact that Denver will have had 10 days to prepare for this game.

What The Cowboys Will Try on Julio Jones

The Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys each enter Sunday’s matchup with 2-0 records.  But the teams have clearly reached their records in completely different fashions.  The Falcons have grinded out two victories in the fourth quarter while the Cowboys have overcome serious injuries in each of their contests.

The Cowboys come in with the third ranked defense in the NFL, including the best run defense in the league.  The Falcons have one of the greatest combo’s in the NFL in quarterback Matt Ryan and receiver Julio Jones.  The Cowboys have faced one other elite receiver thus far in 2015 in Odell Beckham Jr. of the New York Giants.   For week one, OBJ caught five passes for just 44 yards against a Cowboys defense that keyed on him.  That total represented his lowest output in the last 11 games.

The Falcons can expect the Cowboys to use some of these same coverages.  Here’s a rundown of the looks they’ll throw at Julio Jones:

Standard Cover 2

Odell Beckham Jr. (circled in red) lines up wide left in a 21 personnel package (two backs, one tight end).  Cowboy cornerbacks Morris Claiborne (circled) and Brandon Carr will be asked to get their hands on Julio Jones at the line of scrimmage.  Cowboys safeties JJ Wilcox (circled) and Barry Church will play over the top of Jones.  The Falcons saw this coverage early and often during their game against the Giants.  The Falcons responded by throwing very short routes to Jones even though that exposed him to some abuse.  

The Danger in Challenging a Cover 2

Last weekend verse the New York Giants, the Falcons were wise to take what they were given and to work the middle of the field with their slot receivers and tight ends.  In the Cowboys victory over the Giants in week one, the Giants attempted to work up the field with Beckham Jr. against the Cowboys defense.  Cowboys safety JJ Wilcox was able to hammer Odell Beckham Jr. and perhaps knock him out of the game.  OBJ avoided being tested for a concussion upon returning to the sidelines.

 

The Falcons Adjustments

One of the adjustments that was made by the Falcons in their victory over the Giants was to move receiver Julio Jones into the slot.  The move helped alter the underneath coverage that the Giants were playing.  The Giants made this same move against the Cowboys, which forced the defense to play a linebacker on Beckham Jr. with a safety providing deep help.  The Cowboys defense was still playing a Cover 2, which also makes the outside cornerback into the play.

While the Giants were unable to take advantage of the Cowboys linebackers, defending Julio with a linebacker would be a losing proposition. 

 

The Home Run Opportunity

What you will see below is one of Matt Ryan's favorite things to see.  The Eagles were beaten late in part because they decided to play man-free against Julio Jones.  In this situation, Eagles cornerback Byron Maxwell has man coverage against Jones with a single safety left to protect the entire backend of the field.  The Cowboys will not show this look anywhere near as much.  But when they do, it is an opportunity for the Falcons offense.

 

The Exotic Looks

One of the creative looks the Dallas Cowboys are doing defensively has to do with first round draft pick Byron Jones.  Byron Jones is a unique athlete in that he is 6'1 and 200lbs, but capable of running with opposing receivers.  The Cowboys have used him as a nickel package linebacker, where his job has been to primarily defend athletic tight ends.  But what the Cowboys have also done is used Byron Jones as a big defender on slot receivers. 

No one in the league catch physically matchup with Julio Jones, but this is another look that allows the Cowboys to get a space-eating athlete on Julio Jones when he moves into the slot.