Welcome to the Falcons preseason! Wait, I know exactly what you’re thinking...I am a week late and should have posted this before the Falcons took on the Redskins in the Georgia Dome last week. This criticism is 100% true. But I had a family trip to the beach to end my summer so that took precedent over FrontOfficeFootball. While the most recent evaluation of this site estimated the value at $20 million, the opportunity to spend time with the family caused me to ignore my normal obligations. As I’ve stated before, I am the most complicated multi-multi-multi millionaire in all of Atlanta.
(everything italicized is a wild exaggeration)
I feel that I am always of two minds when it comes to the Falcons. There is the optimist in me who takes a rose-colored glasses view of the team and their moves heading into the season. But I’ve also been burned in ways that can only be described as tortuous. You see, it’s one thing to watch 4-12 or 6-10 seasons and then move on with your Sunday despite feeling disappointed or angry. For me, I have to do a 2-3 hour post game show after these abominations. And it’s pretty much like getting kicked in the bean bag over and over again. (Unless that’s your thing. Everybody has a thing.) So I feel I’ve more than earned the right to be ultra-critical and skeptical.
As I am always of two minds on these Falcons, I will illustrate this with pictures and words.
Falcons Optimism –
- Say what you want to about the quarterbacks the Falcons defense faced in 2015, (which is completely legitimate given that group of stiffs) but the defense was statistically improved from the loaded diaper that was 2014. Yes, this team does not sack quarterbacks. Yes, this team gives up entirely too many easy completions to backs and tight ends. But I am of the belief that with Dan Quinn’s additions at safety and linebacker this defense will continue to improve. At the very least this defense should be faster on the second level. A defense ranked in the teens this season would give the offense a chance to win the game most weeks.
- Matt Ryan can’t play worse than he did in 2015. Interceptions are going to happen to every quarterback in the NFL. That’s just part of the business. What boggles the mind were the head-scratching interceptions that immediately ended the Falcons chances for victory. 16 interceptions in 2015 for Matt Ryan along with 5 lost fumbles accounted for his 21 turnover total. That just can’t happen in 2016. There’s no way it will happen in 2016. It can’t possibly happen. Ryan is just too good to be the reason the team loses games.
- 2015 Two words: Leonard Hankerson. 2015 Two more words: The Answer. 2016 Five words: Leonard Hankerson street free agent. I consider this to be significant improvement. Even if the Falcons wildly overpaid for Mohammed Sanu.
Falcons Negativity –
- Keanu Neal has already missed a game, albeit a preseason game, due to injury. One of the legit criticisms during the draft process of Neal was that his style of play would lend itself to injury given his size. In a league where safeties are valued by their ability to cover and make plays in space, Neal is a hitter. The hope is that he can display coverage ability… but the Falcons basically drafted a hard-hitting safety in a league that doesn’t want hard hitting in the game anymore. It’s like investing in HD-DVDs. Didn’t we already have this with William Moore? Neal missed 15 tackles last season with his all-or-nothing approach. He also defended just 9 passes during his three years at Florida. So it’s not like I’m ignoring college production by indulging in Neal negativity.
- Say whatever you wish about Pro Football Focus, (and mostly the criticism comes from ex-athletes who can’t spell math) but there is some value to their system of tracking and grading players. They’re simply now part of in-depth coverage of the NFL. With that written, know that PFF had the Falcons draft as the worst in the NFL in terms of college players grades vs. where they were drafted. Which leads me to this…
- I can’t stand, “scheme specific” scouting. It’s wildly short-sighted and serves the most desperate man in the building. When a GM is strong and his job is not at stake, the GM will draft according to his beliefs. Think of it this way: a Steelers outside linebacker looks the same today as it did in 2006 and 1996. They draft talent that fits their organizational beliefs and how they play defense. Here in Atlanta, the scheme changes over the past several seasons have forced the Falcons to draft for specific teams instead of taking the best talent. This team needed a Kam Chancellor type defender, so Keanu Neal was taken in the first round. This team needed a pass rusher, so it took a small pass rusher who can’t play on the line of scrimmage on every down in Vic Beasley.
There you go...I'll watch with an open mind in 2016 just as I have done in previous seasons. But once I've seen which way the wind is blowing, either the optimist or pessimist in me will make his final decisions on what exactly the 2016 Falcons are.