TCU at Texas Tech
This game is intriguing because of the history, Vegas, and where TCU is as a potential playoff team.
Last year Texas Tech went to Fort Worth to take on the Horned Frogs. That game had a final score of 82-27. A winning margin of 55 points! It would stand to reason that TCU would be heavily favored once again against a 3-0 Texas Tech team.
But that’s just not the case. Vegas has TCU as just a seven point favorite. TCU, because of suspension, injuries, and graduation does not have the same kind of defense as they had last year. In 2014, TCU was 28th in total defense, which was more than enough considering what they were doing offensively. This year they are 76th in total defense.
I’m not saying this will be an upset. What I am saying is that there are a lot of conditions here that would concern me if I was on the TCU playoff bandwagon.
UCLA at Arizona
A battle for Pac 12 south supremacy gets underway Saturday night. Arizona has scored the 2nd most amount of points those teams in the Power 5 conferences, but they haven’t played anyone as of yet. UCLA has proven a bit more in defeating both Virginia and BYU thus far this season.
The UCLA defense has been impressive thus far. The Bruins have given up just 42 points on the season, and are 28th in total defense. But they haven’t had to deal with a player like Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon.
Solomon has already accounted for 11 touchdowns this season, that’s good enough for 6th in the country. Solomon’s 10 touchdown passes have occurred without an interception. He’s completing 68% of his passes. But he hasn’t seen anything like the Bruins defense this season.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
The only matchup between 2-0 teams this NFL weekend features two teams who have beaten both the Giants and Eagles. The Cowboys injuries have been the story all week, but what’s been overlooked is the subtle improvement of the Falcons defense.
Dan Quinn in his first year as the Falcons head coach hasn’t added a bunch of new top-end talent to the Falcons defense. They are still ranked 27th in the NFL in total defense. But where the Falcons are improved is on the critical down: 3rd down. The Falcons were dead last in the NFL last season in opponents 3rd down conversions, giving up nearly a 50% rate of success. Thus far in 2015, the Falcons have improved that rate to just under 45%, good enough for a 21st ranking in the league.
The Cowboys’ offense has really morphed into something that resembles the Patriots and Colts teams when they attack teams with their two tight end sets. The Cowboys have been playing tight end Gavin Escobar on about 40% of their snaps so far this season. That has allowed Dallas to play two receivers, two tight ends, and get the ball to their running backs in the passing game. Cowboy running backs so far have 18 catches for 211 yards.
Look for Cowboy running back Lance Dunbar to create some issues as the Falcons have allowed more catches and yards to running backs than any other team in the league thus far.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
The Philadelphia Eagles are playing for their season against the New York Jets. Consider this: only three NFL teams since 1992 have made the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. The last one was the 1998 Buffalo Bills, so it’s been awhile.
The Eagles running game has been dreadful so far this season. For a team that has been one of the best in the league at rushing the football under head coach Chip Kelly, the Eagles are dead last in rushing yards per game in the NFL. The Eagles are averaging 35 yards rushing per game. I attribute this to a lack of speed on the offense and the poor play of quarterback Sam Bradford. Bradford is currently the 31st ranked passer in the league.
As for the Jets, Todd Bowles has already placed his stamp on this football team. Last year, Bowles’ Arizona Cardinals defense was amongst the league leaders in taking the football away from their opponents. The Jets are currently #1 in the NFL in turnover margin, having already forced an amazing 10 turnovers in just two games. This is not the right team for Eagles quarterbacks Sam Bradford to “get right” with.
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (SNF)
The Detroit Lions have a recipe for getting Matthew Stafford hurt.
The Lions, despite their 0-2 record, actually held a sizeable lead in week 1 against San Diego. That’s a perfect situation to run the football and finish off a team. But running the football is something that the Lions are just not going. They have run the ball a total of 32 times over two games, with one of the lower averages in the league. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has been physically beaten up thus far.
Denver is the wrong team to figure out your offense against. The Broncos are currently #1 in defense in the NFL, and are fourth in the league in sacks. While Peyton Manning hasn’t looked like the Peyton Manning of even early last season, the Broncos have a defense that’s going to keep them in games. Also, don’t overlook the fact that Denver will have had 10 days to prepare for this game.