Blog

Falcons Free Agency: Production and Price

Time to Build The Team Again

Time to Build The Team Again

For any NFL free agent, teams must weigh the value of bringing their own players back to the team verse bringing in another option.  Perhaps that’s through the draft, or by signing a free agent from another NFL team.

NFL players typically get judged against their peers at their position.  If Player A is worth $10M per season and Player B has similar production to Player A, Player B will typically ask for $10M on his next contract.  Production is a huge factor in determining value.

But what happens when you’re looking for value at a position?  One method to determine value is to look at price-per-play.  The idea of price-per-play is to understand that NFL coaches typically want to get their most effective players on the field as much as possible. 

If Player A plays 600 plays during a season but costs $10M in cap space, one must evaluate if Player B could be a suitable replacement.  If Player B plays 500 plays in a season but costs $2M in cap space, the discussion on the value of each player has to be had.  That is especially true if there is not a significant difference in the production with Player A & Player B.

Consider:

Tyson Jackson ($6.35M in cap space 2016)

Plays: 329

Production: 5 tackles, 8 assists, 0 sacks

Price-per-Play: $14,976

 

Courtney Upshaw ($1.4M)

Plays: 310

Production: 14 tackles, 9 assists, .5 sacks

Price-per Play: $4,516

 

Paul Worrilow ($2.5M)

Plays: 162

Production: 12 tackles, 6 assists.

Price-per Play: $15,432

 

Deion Jones ($827,000)

Plays: 897

Production: 75 tackles, 31 assists, 3 INTs, 2 FF.

Price-per Play: $921

 

Robert Alford ($4M in 2017)

Plays: (projected off 2016) 1,000

Production:

Price-per Play:$4,000

 

Julio Jones ($15.9M)

Plays: 705

Production: huge

Price-per Play: $22,523

 

Alshon Jeffery ($11.1M…was supposed to be $14.6M)

Plays: 692

Production: 52 catches, 821 yards.  2 TDs

Price-per Play: $21,100 per play

 

Consider that guys like Dontari Poe are going to command big dollars in free agency but have no had the production in recent years to warrant a sizable contract.  While he’s going to play a lot of plays, the production simply hasn’t bee there.

Dontari Poe (6 sacks in 2014…2.5 next two seasons.  Going to be 4 yrs - $48M plus)

-los