(Key number: College Football Analysts) Beware of the perceived best teams in the country:
It’s amazing how people that “know” college football are so wrong each and every year. This isn’t just a statement about the writers and talking heads who speak with authority on college football; it’s also on the coaches and athletic directors who make their livings in the sport.
Look at the top 10 rankings over the last few years from the coaches poll (the AP poll isn’t any better)… look at where these top 10 teams have started and what their records were to end the year:
2014 2013 2012
#3 Oklahoma (8-5) #5 Georgia (8-5) #3 USC (7-6)
#5 Auburn (8-5) #6 Texas A&M (9-4) #8 Michigan (8-5)
#9 South Carolina (7-6)
2011
#1 Oklahoma (10-3) – had to win Insight.com bowl to get to 10 wins
#5 Florida State (9-4)
#9 Texas A&M (7-6)
(Key number 10 and 292) Louisville vs Auburn
Bobby Petrino is 10-0 in season openers over the course of his college football head coaching career. That should at least be a little concerning for Auburn, until you begin to look a little deeper. Petrino compiled that record by going 5-0 vs Kentucky at Louisville and Western Kentucky, and beat up the likes of Western Illinois, Missouri State and Tennessee Tech.
The only win of note for Petrino came last year when his team beat Miami to open the year. As one of the best play callers in the country, Petrino needs his defense under Todd Grantham to help him dictate pace to Auburn. In Louisville’s narrow losses to Virginia and Clemson last year, the team gave up just 52 and 114 yards on the ground.
In Louisville’s bigger losses to Florida State and Georgia, they had no answers for each team’s running game. The Seminoles went for 173 yards on the ground, while Georgia and Nick Chubb ran for 292 yards.
If Louisville is to make this a game late, they will have to find a way to make Auburn’s attack a one-dimensional one.
(Key Numbers: 110 vs 331) Alabama vs Wisconsin:
This is a classic matchup of two programs who believe in playing a similar style of football. For years, Wisconsin has been built on a strong running game featuring running backs that are regularly drafted highly in the NFL. (Melvin Gordon, Montee Ball, Michael Bennett, Ron Dayne, etc)
Over the last seven seasons, the Badgers have ranked no worse than 14th in the country in rushing yards per game. Last year they were among the very best in the country when they ranked 4th behind Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement. Clement is back on a team that averaged…averaged 331 yards rushing per game!
But this is what Alabama does. Alabama’s defense thrives on those teams that attempt to run at them with power. Over the last seven seasons, Alabama has posted a top 10 ranking in fewest average rushing yards per game. They’ve been #1 two times in the last four seasons. Last year they gave up just 110 rushing yards per game.
Between Wisconsin’s running game and Alabama’s defense, the winner will be able to dictate the game to the other team.
(Key Number 62) Arizona State vs Texas A&M:
I like Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin. I make it a point when we go to SEC Media Days to walk up to his press conference and listen to what he has to say. He can command a room and runs a very fun offense when it gets going. The problem has always been his defense.
In steps defensive coordinator John Chavis for the Aggies, who comes from LSU with a pedigree or putting a quality defense on the field. The Aggies, and notably Kevin Sumlin, has had his success as coach almost entirely driven by his defense.
Sumlin started at Texas A&M with that factastic 2012 season featuring Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. His team was 62nd in the country in defense, which isn’t great but allowed his offense to thrive. Over the past two years his defense has ranked 114th and 100th in the country.
Dating back to his time at Houston, Sumlin has had defenses that ranked 102nd, 116th, and 103rd. His best defense was ranked…62nd…in 2011 when his team went 13-1. His defense that year landed him the Texas A&M job.
I love Arizona State and their offense, which ranked 17th in the country last year and scores over 36 points per game. The reason why the Aggies are a 3.5 point favorite against the #15 Sun Devils on a somewhat neutral site is because Vegas believes the defense will be improved.
(Key Number 13) Ohio State at Virginia Tech:
For college football’s national champions the operation remains the same: score a bunch of points and force teams to deal with your solid defense.
Ohio State has scored at least 30 points in 25 of their last 27 games. They’ve scored at least 30 points in 13 straight games dating back to their loss last season to Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech has been known for defense over the years, but that hasn’t been the calling card since the 11-3 season in 2011. Since that season, Pitt, North Carolina, Alabama, Miami, Clemson, and Boston College have all had 30 point games on Virginia Tech. Boston College and Miami have actually done it twice.