After a wild weekend in College Football, multiple fan bases are left to wonder if their dreams of making the playoffs are now over. I’ve been adamant that if you use history as your indicator you will find that losing a regular season game is not a playoff killer. In some cases, you don’t even have to win your conference!
I went back to 2004 and looked at the final BCS standings before bowl season. I wanted to see the top four teams in the rankings and see what types of seasons they put together. While it’s not a perfect predictor of what the playoff committee will do, it’s easy to imagine how the arguments will play out.
For instance, in 2013 Alabama was ranked 3rd in the standings despite having lost their final game to Auburn and failing to win their division. Florida State was 13-0 and a clear #1, while Auburn, Alabama, and Michigan State each had one loss. If this same situation played out today, the conference champion that would have to win the argument would be an 11-2 Stanford team. Or an 11-1 Baylor team that lost to Oklahoma State 49-17.
In 2012, Florida found themselves in the top four after Georgia lost the SEC Title Game to Alabama. With an 11-1 record, Florida was another recent team that found themselves in a highly rated position without winning their division. Big 12 Champion Kansas State was 11-1 but had lost at Baylor 52-24. In comparison, Florida had lost to Georgia 17-9.
You will find these sorts of scenarios playing out regularly. Since 2004:
- 9 of the 40 teams would be ranked in the top four without having won their conference.
- 24 of the 40 teams would be ranked in the top four with at least one loss.
**indicates teams that did not win their conference.
2013:
Florida State 13-0
Auburn 12-1
**Alabama 11-1
Michigan State 12-1
2012:
Notre Dame 12-0
Alabama 12-1
**Florida 11-1
Oregon 11-1
2011:
LSU 13-0
**Alabama 11-1
Oklahoma State 11-1
Stanford 11-1
2010:
Auburn 13-0
Oregon 12-0
TCU 12-0
Stanford 11-1
2009:
Alabama 13-0
Texas 13-0
Cincinnati 12-0
TCU 12-0
2008:
Oklahoma 12-1
Florida 12-1
**Texas 11-1
**Alabama 12-1
2007:
Ohio State 11-1
LSU 11-2
Virginia Tech 11-2
Oklahoma 11-2
2006:
Ohio State 12-0
Florida 12-1
**Michigan 11-1
**LSU 10-2
2005:
USC 12-0
Texas 12-0
**Penn State 10-1
Ohio State 9-2
2004:
USC 12-0
Oklahoma 12-0
Auburn 12-0
**Texas 10-1