The Atlanta Falcons are currently 2-4 this season. The Falcons were just 4-12 in 2013 in what was thought to be an anomaly of a season. Some fans point to the 13-3 season in 2012 and believe that the team is just a move or two away from once again competing in the NFC. But here is the simple truth:
The window for the Falcons is currently closed.
That's not ground breaking given the current state of the team. But what is important to realize is that this is the natural evolution of what happens in the NFL. Teams typically rise and fall as their veteran talent ages into and out of their primes. The great part about having a franchise quarterback is that you can get multiple windows to compete for a title. Allow me to explain this a little further.
The Dallas Cowboys are currently 5-1 and are being held up as a contender. From 2007 to 2009, the Cowboys were 33-15 including winning the division for two of the three seasons. The window for that team closed with their playoff loss to the Minnesota Vikings in January of 2010. Let's take a look at the key components on their roster and how it compares to today.
January 2010:
QB - Tony Romo
Leading Rusher: RB - Marion Barber
Starting WRs: Miles Austin & Roy Williams
Tight End: Jason Witten
Offensive Line: Flozell Adams - Kyle Kosier - Andre Gurode - Leonard Davis - Marc Columbo
Leading Tackler: Bradie James
Leading Sacker: DeMarcus Ware
Cornerbacks: Terrence Newman & Mike Jenkins
Safeties: Gerald Sensabaugh & Ken Hamlin
October 2014:
QB - Tony Romo
Leading Rusher: RB - DeMarco Murray (3rd)
Starting WRs: Dez Bryant (1st) & Terrence Williams (3rd)
Tight End: Jason Witten
Offensive Line: Tyron Smith (1st) - Ronald Leary (UFA) - Travis Frederick (1st) - Zack Martin (1st) - Doug Free (4th)
Leading Tackler: Barry Church (UFA)
Leading Sacker: Henry Melton (FA)
Cornerbacks: Brandon Carr (FA) & Orlando Scandrick (5th)
Safeties: Barry Church (UFA) & JJ Wilcox (3rd)
Of these 16 key areas, 14 are filled by players who were not on the roster in January of 2010! Let's now take a look at the NFC Title Game Falcons verse this current version:
January 2013:
QB - Matt Ryan
Leading Rusher: RB - Michael Turner
Starting WRs: Roddy White & Julio Jones
Tight End: Tony Gonzalez
Offensive Line: Sam Baker - Justin Blalock - Todd McClure - Garrett Reynolds - Tyson Clabo
Leading Tackler: Stephen Nicholas
Leading Sacker: John Abraham
Cornerbacks: Asante Samuel & Dunta Robinson
Safeties: Wiliam Moore & Thomas DeCoud
October 2014:
QB - Matt Ryan
Leading Rusher: RB - Steven Jackson (FA)
Starting WRs: Roddy White & Julio Jones
Tight End: Levine Toilolo (4th)
Offensive Line: Jake Matthews (1st) - Justin Blalock - Peter Konz (2nd) - Jon Asamoah (FA) - Gabe Carimi (FA)
Leading Tackler: Paul Worrilow (UFA)
Leading Sacker: Jonathan Massaquoi (7th)
Cornerbacks: Desmond Trufant (1st) & Robert Alford (2nd)
Safeties: Dwight Lowery (FA) & Kemal Ishmael (7th)
Of the 16 key spots, only four players are currently on the roster from the group that played in the NFC title game. While a few like LB Sean Weatherspoon, S William Moore, and LT Sam Baker would have been on the roster if not for injury, that's a ton of roster turnover.
But that is the point. Windows in the NFL open and close for particular groups. The Falcons window for the group that reached the NFC Title Game is now closed. With Matt Ryan pulling the trigger, it's a matter of how much more turnover there is going to be before the window for the Falcons re-opens.
-los