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College Football 9-1-18. Let's do this!

Auburn at Washington - MBS Stadium - Atlanta, GA - 3:30

  • The best matchup of the weekend features a pair of top 10 ranked teams who both have conference championship and playoff dreams.  
  • Auburn was one of the best teams in the country a season ago because of their defense, running game, and quarterback play under Jarrett Stidham.
  • Last year Auburn had to play Georgia, Alabama, and Georgia again in less than a month.  The physical nature of those games and getting away from the friendly atmosphere of Jordan-Haire stadium ultimately led to them losing the SEC Championship Game and the Chick Fil A Bowl to UCF.
  • What's changed:  The SEC's leading rusher in Kerryon Johnson is now in the NFL.  Auburn has a group of talented runners but no one who figures to be able to carry the entire load.  That's okay, Gus Malzahn has never asked anyone to do that until Johnson did last year.  The offensive line has to replace 4 starters.  But the defense... is still the quality defense.
  • Auburn was 12th in the country in terms of points allowed.

And that's where these two teams intersect.  Washington gave up the 7th fewest points in college football last year.  For all of the stereotyping that the Pac 12... or the Big 12 gets around the country for lackadaisical defense...you will get a big lesson if you get on the field with the Huskies.  

  • People knew Vita Veya on the defensive line, but the Huskies continue to feature one of the best secondaries in the country.  Every starter is back...Taylor Rapp is a stud at safety, and allows them to do so many different things up front.
  • Jake Browning will statistically be the best quarterback in the history of Washington Huskies football, in part because he's played so long.  So much experience.  29 wins and counting.  Chance to quiet the critics.  Browning isn't a big time athlete... not a big arm...not overly athletic.  And that has showed up in the past.  

 

Michigan at Notre Dame - 7:30

There's a pair of highly thought of guys who need each other for a bounce back season.  Jim Harbaugh needs Shea Patterson.

  • Shea Patterson arrived at Ole Miss as a five-star recruit who was going to keep the good times rolling in Oxford.  Hugh Freeze and the gang had something different play out.
  • Patterson got hurt last year, 17 TDs and 9 Ints last year in 7 games before injury.  Patterson needs Harbaugh.  and Harbaugh REALLY needs Patterson.
  • Last season Michigan QBs combined to throw 9 TDs...and 10 Ints.  It certainly makes Wolverine fans long for the Wilton Speight days of 2016.  
  • Michigan is 1-5 vs Ohio State and Michigan State during Harbaugh's time at Michigan.   
  • Notre Dame put together a strong 10-3 season after going 4-8 in 2016.  Notre Dame's MO last year was a physical running game that ranked 8th in the country in terms of rushing yards per game.  That included two first round picks on the offensive line.  
  • Brandon Wimbush was under 50% as a passer.  What he can do on the ground is one thing, and good enough to beat a lot of teams.  Elite teams, especially defensive ones, can handle Notre Dame.  An improved Wimbush would add an element that would make them much more difficult to defend.  Georgia last year held Notre Dame with 55 yards on 37 carries.
  • This game is going to be about smart quarterback play and the assertion of will... old school football.  Can you beat up the other guy?
  •  

Miami at LSU - Sunday 7:30 - Arlington, TX

  • Miami is back? Top 10.  24 of their 85 scholarship athletes are 4 star are better.  And many of them were added under Mark Richt, now in his 3rd season.  28% of the roster.  This is a good team, but not yet among the elite in CFB.  I believe that's exactly what you'll see this year.
  • LSU - you have to go back to Zach Mettenberger to find a 3,000 passer at LSU.  Joe Burrows, Ohio State transfer gets the start.  

 

Va Tech at Florida State - Monday 8:00

The Willie Taggert era begins in Tallahassee.  This is Taggert's third program he's headed in three years.  South Florida...Oregon...and now Florida State.  Taggert was brought in for two reasons.  

  • He can recruit the state of Florida extremely well.  2.  His offense features a dynamic QB, while also running the football down your throat.  Deondre Francois is the starter for FSU as he's healthy.  
  • You may recall that after he went down against Alabama, the season fell apart
  • The ACC belongs to Clemson.  This year is about Florida State putting in the foundation to be competitive again with Clemson

Falcons Free Agency: Production and Price

Time to Build The Team Again

Time to Build The Team Again

For any NFL free agent, teams must weigh the value of bringing their own players back to the team verse bringing in another option.  Perhaps that’s through the draft, or by signing a free agent from another NFL team.

NFL players typically get judged against their peers at their position.  If Player A is worth $10M per season and Player B has similar production to Player A, Player B will typically ask for $10M on his next contract.  Production is a huge factor in determining value.

But what happens when you’re looking for value at a position?  One method to determine value is to look at price-per-play.  The idea of price-per-play is to understand that NFL coaches typically want to get their most effective players on the field as much as possible. 

If Player A plays 600 plays during a season but costs $10M in cap space, one must evaluate if Player B could be a suitable replacement.  If Player B plays 500 plays in a season but costs $2M in cap space, the discussion on the value of each player has to be had.  That is especially true if there is not a significant difference in the production with Player A & Player B.

Consider:

Tyson Jackson ($6.35M in cap space 2016)

Plays: 329

Production: 5 tackles, 8 assists, 0 sacks

Price-per-Play: $14,976

 

Courtney Upshaw ($1.4M)

Plays: 310

Production: 14 tackles, 9 assists, .5 sacks

Price-per Play: $4,516

 

Paul Worrilow ($2.5M)

Plays: 162

Production: 12 tackles, 6 assists.

Price-per Play: $15,432

 

Deion Jones ($827,000)

Plays: 897

Production: 75 tackles, 31 assists, 3 INTs, 2 FF.

Price-per Play: $921

 

Robert Alford ($4M in 2017)

Plays: (projected off 2016) 1,000

Production:

Price-per Play:$4,000

 

Julio Jones ($15.9M)

Plays: 705

Production: huge

Price-per Play: $22,523

 

Alshon Jeffery ($11.1M…was supposed to be $14.6M)

Plays: 692

Production: 52 catches, 821 yards.  2 TDs

Price-per Play: $21,100 per play

 

Consider that guys like Dontari Poe are going to command big dollars in free agency but have no had the production in recent years to warrant a sizable contract.  While he’s going to play a lot of plays, the production simply hasn’t bee there.

Dontari Poe (6 sacks in 2014…2.5 next two seasons.  Going to be 4 yrs - $48M plus)

-los

The 2017 NFL Offseason Guide is Here!

Greetings humans.

Apologies as I have not been placing my typical work in this blog page.  I simply fell behind this football season and started using most of my research on-air, but not linking it to my site.

But that ends today!  I've finally completed the 2017 NFL Offseason Guide.  This is now the 5th edition of this guide that I work on from December-February each year.  Simply click the link below:

2017 NFL Offseason Guide

Thanks and enjoy the offseason.  I'll have draft/free agency info here regularly.

-los