NFL & CFB Notes 12/5 - 12/6

Michigan State and Iowa

No two teams have benefited more from Notre Dame’s loss than Michigan State and Iowa.  Notre Dame’s strength of schedule is currently 17th in the country.  That’s better than every current playoff team with the exception of Alabama, who’s 3rd and going to move higher after their game against Florida.

Iowa’s strength of schedule is 63rd in the country, Michigan State’s is 53.  The two have more in common as they’re separated by just 9 yards in terms of opponent’s yards per game, each has a top 25 defense.  Iowa has given up 19 points per game to Sparty’s 21.  Offensively, Iowa is 58th in total yards,  Michigan State is 62.  Iowa is 29th in points, Sparty is 35th.  These teams are incredibly similar.

The difference is at QB, where Connor Cook is a top 50 pick in the NFL Draft in 2016.  The Senior QB has passed for 24 touchdowns this season while throwing only 4 interceptions.  Cook came back to school to get into a situation just like this.  I believe Michigan State moves on to the playoffs.

North Carolia and Clemson

One of the final steps that makes an up-and-coming team into a contending champion is the rise of a defense.   Defense has been the difference in taking Clemson from being a very good team to a great team.

Three years ago Clemson was going as fast as they good offensively and were hanging on defensively.  The Tigers were 54th in the country defensively 3 years ago.  2 years ago, the team was ranked 44th in defense.  This year, Clemson is among the Alabama’s, Michigan’s and Florida’s defensively.  Clemson is 7th overall in the country.

Where Clemson is the best in the country is in first half adjustments.  Once they see your game plan in action, no one has been better than Clemson.  The Tigers are 1st in the country in points given up in the 2nd quarter.  North Carolina is a very good football team, as Larry Fedora’s group last lost on the opening Thursday night of the season.  They will have to avoid tenancies and contain quarterback Deshaun Waton to make this a 4th quarter game.

Eagles @ Patriots

Number to know: 70.

JK asked the question about why the Eagles defense is starting is struggling.  The Eagles were 1-3 last season in December as they gave up 115 points in 4 December games.  (29 per game)... they lost time of possession in those games by a total of 50 minutes.

Fast forward to 2015, as the Eagles are dead last in the league in time of possession and opponents plays per game.  The average NFL team is defending around 63 plays per game.  The Eagles are facing 70 on average. 
 

That doesn’t seem like a big deal, but its adding up to the Eagles defense playing 18 games worth of defense in comparison to everyone else.  It’s wear and tear.  This team has played 11 games, but the defense has played 13 games worth of defense.  It’s a worn out bunch making business decisions out there.  By the way, New England is 10th in the league in plays per game on offense.

Chiefs @ Raiders

Number to Know: 6

The Kansas City Chiefs are attempting to become one of the extreme rarities in the NFL...a team that has lost at least 4 straight games to make the NFL playoffs.  In the Chiefs case, they dropped 5 straight before going on their current 5 game winning streak.  The last team to get on one of these types of runs were the 2014 Carolina Panthers, who are still on it.  And the 2011 New York Giants, who lost 4 straight but eventually won the Super Bowl.

Standing in their way is one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.  Derek Carr is proving to be the cream of the 2014 QB crop that saw 4 quarterbacks go in the top 40 picks.  Carr has thrown for 24 touchdown passes against just 6 interceptions this season.  His QB rating of 101.5 is 6th in the NFL, and is just a few points behind Brady, Palmer, and Dalton.

Here’s where Carr is really doing well, he’s seeing the entire field.  Carr has completed at least 20 passes to 6 different pass catchers on the roster.  It makes it very difficult for a defense to key on a particular player.  Leading receiver Michael Crabtree has 61 catches and 6 touchdowns.  Amari Cooper has 58 catches and 4 touchdowns.  You simply can’t take away everyone.  The Chiefs will have their handful on the road.

Colts @ Steelers

Number to know: 1,594

This is a clash of opposing streaks.  The Colts are undefeated under the care of quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.  Hasselbeck has led the Colts to a 4-0 record for the injured Andrew Luck, by taking care of the football.  Hasselbeck is completing 65% for 7 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. 

The Steelers who have dealt with injuries and suspensions this season are an offensive juggernaut when they’re healthy.  They’re as close as they’re going to get with Big Ben playing and not in the concussion protocol.  In the last three weeks the Steelers have  been like a video game. The Steelers have put up 1,594 yards over the past three weeks, including 98 points.

In Hasselbeck’s wins with the Colts, the team has reached the 24 point mark in 3 of the 4 games.  But it’s simply going to take more than that to beat the Steelers.

Tracking the contenders:

The overwhelming majority of NFL champions since the rule changes of 2004 have two things in common: They get good quarterback play and they sack the opposing quarterback.

Teams that currently fit the profile:

New England (QB 1st) / (2nd Sacks)

Cincinnati (QB 3rd) / (10th Sacks)

Seattle (QB 4th) / (12th Sacks)

Green Bay (QB 8th) / (3rd Sacks)

Outliers:

Carolina (QB 19th) / (3rd Sacks)

Arizona (QB 2nd) / 23rd Sacks)

NFL & CFB Notes 11/28 - 11/29

Alabama (14.5) at Auburn  

For those people hoping that Auburn can give Alabama a 2nd loss and ruin the SEC’s chances of returning to the college football playoffs, don’t bet on it.  The idea that this is a rivalry game and anything can happen goes out the window today.  Alabama has won 5 of the past 7 of these, with Auburn’s only wins coming with Cam Newton and off the kick-six during Auburn’s miracle season.

Since 2008, Auburn has been beaten in this game by 36, 28, 49, and 11.  When they lost by 11, they gave up 55 points.  Expect Alabama to roll into the SEC title game with an 11 victory.

Ohio State at Michigan (even)

 At one point this season, Michigan had the hottest defense in America.  While the Wolverines haven’t been shutting out teams like they did earlier this season, they’ve given up just 23 points per game (excluding OT) in their last five ball games. 

For the Buckeyes, can they put together enough offense to push the Wolverines into an uncomfortable shootout?  If your looking for a head coach to hire at your program, I present to you the resume of Houston Cougars coach Tom Hermann.  Under his guidance last year, Hermann had the Buckeyes averaging 45 points per game, and that’s with 3 different quarterbacks over the course of the season.

This year, Ohio State state is now by nearly two touchdowns per game, averaging 34 points per game.  Their offense is down about 85 yards per game.  Everyone was waiting all year for when Ohio State was going to put things together offensively.  The problem is that without Hermann, THIS IS THE Ohio State offense.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-7)

We talked about how this game was the key to the Big 12 getting a playoff team three weeks ago.  Nowthat we’re here, it’s exactly that.  Oklahoma currently sits in the 3 position for the college football playoffs, and their recent schedule has helped imensly.

Three weeks ago, Oklahoma had the 57th ranked strength of schedule in the country.  At the time, Notre Dame was 12th.  But because of OU’s recent run, Oklahoma now finds themselves with the 35th ranked schedule in the country, and Notre Dame is now 29th.  When the two teams are compared for the final rankings, this is why Oklahoma will stay ahead of Notre Dame assuming a win against Oklahoma State.

The health of Baker Mayfield will be the key, as he practice all week this week.  For a team avergaing over 50 points a game and over 600 yards, having Mayfield off the field last week was glaring.  Oklahoma scored 23 points with Mayfield on the field, but just 7 in the half against TCU when he was off the field.

Vikings at Falcons

There is good new and bad news for the Atlanta Falcons.  The good news is that the NFL’s leading rusher heads to the Georgia Dome and must face a defense that is #1 in the league in stopping the run.  The Falcons have spent all year selling out and making it a point to opposing teams that they must throw the ball to win the game.  The bad news is that the Falcons have made enough mistakes to aid them in losing 4 of their last 5, including 3 in a row.

The Falcons have spent the better part of a decade being on of those teams in the NFL who will not beat themselves.  Under new coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons have been attempted to emulate the ultra-aggressive penalty style that the Seattle Seahawks have played with in recent years.  The problem is that the Falcons don’t have the talent to overcome their own mistakes.

The Falcons are on pace to committ 110 penalties this season and turn the ball over 31 times.  Both would be the highest since 2007 when Michael Vick went to prison and Bobby Petrino was on the sidelines.  The Falcons offense has averaged just 18 points over the last five games, so the team must reduce their own mistakes and find another touchdown offensively to beat the underdog Vikings.

Patriots at Broncos

The New England Patriots have a tried and true formula this year: score a bunch of points and make life really tough on your offense.  With the Patriots now having multiple receivers ailing, this game is fascinating to see if they can keep up their scoring.

Receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola are hurting, with Edelman out until perhaps the playoffs.  The Patriots have been one of the fastest starters offensively in the league, averaging the 4th most points in the league in the first quarter...and the 2nd most in the 3rd quarter.  Fast starts is what they do.

Denver is #1 in total defense, they’re #4 in 3rd down defense...and here’s where they are so tough...The Broncos sack quarterbacks on nearly 10% of their drop backs.  That’s going to be tough for Tom Brady to deal with.

The Broncos aren’t asking a ton out of Brock Osweiler.  It’s because of what they can do defensively that allows them to be very conservative.  I expect that on Sunday Night.

NFL @ CFB Notes 11/14 - 11/15

Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott

Slip Up Weekend:

The matchups aren’t sexy this college football weekend, but what’s on the line certainly is.

Alabama at Mississippi State – (Chance of upset 20%) Alabama now has a clear road to a return to the college football plays.  The team plays two road games against middle of the road SEC West teams before they get a chance to play Florida for the conference title.

Alabama will close with a bad Auburn team, so Mississippi State remains the last big hurdle. 

Dak Prescott is having an outstanding season for a team that was picked to finish last in the SEC West, completing 67% of his passes for 18 touchdowns and just 1 interception.  Prescott also is a rushing option which has given Alabama trouble at times.  His 7 touchdowns on just 86 attempts makes him a threat to pull it down and go.

Oregon at Stanford – (Chance of upset 15%) This has been a disappointing season for Oregon but they still present a danger to Stanford as a 6-3 team (4-2 in Pac 12 play).  This game would almost ensure Stanford’s place in the Pac 12 title game as they close play next week against Cal.  Stanford has to take care of Oregon to not only setup a conference title opportunity, but keep their momentum going towards a possible playoff bid when they close the season with Notre Dame in Palo Alto.

Oklahoma at Baylor – (Chance of upset 50%) Perhaps the best situation for the Big 12 to make the college football playoffs will be for the Oklahoma at Oklahoma State game to end the year be a massive game.  But that can’t happen unless Oklahoma beats Baylor on the road today.  Baylor has been penalized from the schedule thus far, so they need this victory in the worst way.

As of today, Baylor has beaten every team on their schedule.  Not one of them currently has a winning record for their season.  Not one.

Patriots at Giants – No one in the NFL has the reputation that Patriots coach Bill Belichick does.  Now that’s not always a good thing, but Belichick is renowned for making your team play left handed.  Put simply, the Patriots take away what you like to do and force you to beat them by doing stuff you don’t like to do.

The Giants don’t just like, but love to get the ball to receiver Odell Beckham Jr.  OBJ continues to be off to the most prolific start in NFL history for a receiver.  He’s currently projected to catch over 100 passes for 1,400 yards.  Over his first 21 NFL games, Beckham Jr. has caught 150 passes for just over 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns.

The Giants want to get him the ball.  The Patriots want the Giants to do something else.  You have to score 30 plus points to beat the Patriots.  The Giants will have to get the ball to Beckham Jr. to do that.

Cardinals at Seahawks – There have been three teams to beat the Seattle Seahawks at home during the Russell Wilson era.  Those teams were the 2015 Carolina Panthers, the 2014 Dallas Cowboys, and the 2013 Arizona Cardinals.

Seattle needs this game in order to get within one game of the NFC West division lead.  But this will be perhaps the best overall team that Seattle has played thus far.  Arizona is the only team in the NFL who is currently top 5 in both total offense and total defense.  They’re ranked third in each category.

Seattle is just a three point favorite at home according to Vegas.  This game is going to be tight and should go to the 4th quarter.